Editor’s Note: Last night, the supposed “major news media” in greater Portland laid out the election results and signed off; the Hillsboro Herald was just getting to work. Washington County progressive candidates were written off as making a “good effort”; the push was described as admirable but not enough to win. Races were called, and the Spring elections were being tucked to bed. No big upsets.
But at 11:46 PM Tuesday, the Herald received the Elections update, and we saw movement in the numbers. Major movement in fact, and many of the candidates running together under the “Stop The Sprawl” flagship showed that late votes were leaning their way. 23 hours later, we have another report. The races have all turned in favor of these upstart candidates, and now some appear to be putting them in the winner’s seats. But no one is calling anything. This is a razor’s edge situation, but we have the numbers and some thoughts on what is happening as the ballots are counted.
The update narrative of Washington County’s primary election has completely flipped in the last 17 hours. Armed with the fresh 5:00 PM Wednesday data drop from county elections officials, a clear and decisive pattern has emerged: late-arriving ballots are processing with a heavy progressive tilt, lifting key labor-backed progressive challengers and setting up absolute nail-biters across our local legislative fields.
Inside the Data: Why the Late Votes “Lean Left”
A massive structural divide in ballot timing has completely transformed the landscape since Tuesday night’s midnight returns. Initial returns processed on Tuesday night heavily favored older, more conservative, and moderate establishment bases. However, political strategists and regional analysts note that ballots dropped off at local libraries and collection boxes later on Tuesday afternoon skew significantly younger, working-class, and further to the left.
With countywide turnout advancing from 25.82% up to 29.59% (representing 119,656 total ballots counted), this influx of progressive mail-in and drop-box returns has acted as an operational slingshot for labor-backed challengers, entirely erasing early leads and forcing multi-term incumbents onto the defensive.
Because Oregon law honors mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day, county workers can process arriving ballots for up to seven days. With roughly 15,000 fresh ballots added to the pool today and late mail-ins still streaming into processing centers, several margins are down to a razor’s edge. Definitive finality will likely take another two to three days.
📊 Multi-Race Side-by-Side Live Tracking Matrix
| Race & Candidate | 12 AM % | 5 PM % | Net Shift | 5 PM Votes | Live Trend Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟥 WASHINGTON COUNTY BOARD CHAIR | |||||
| Nafisa Fai | 35.79% | 37.13% | +1.34% | 35,644 | 🔥 Rising (Leaped to #1) |
| Pam Treece | 35.94% | 34.76% | -1.18% | 33,373 | Slipped to #2 (Runoff) |
| Jenny Kamprath | 27.76% | 27.61% | -0.15% | 26,505 | Eliminated |
| 🟦 COUNTY COMMISSIONER — DISTRICT 4 | |||||
| Steve Callaway | 34.57% | 33.84% | -0.73% | 7,958 | #1 Seed Locked |
| Kipperlyn Sinclair | 19.25% | 20.17% | +0.92% | 4,744 | 📈 Trending Up (#2 Runoff Slot) |
| Ayla Hofler | 18.48% | 18.58% | +0.10% | 4,369 | Losing Ground in #3 |
| 🟩 STATE SENATE — DISTRICT 15 (DEM) | |||||
| Myrna A. Muñoz | 47.51% | 49.43% | +1.92% | 5,047 | ⚡ LEAPFROG SURGE (Took Lead) |
| Janeen Sollman | 49.82% | 47.91% | -1.91% | 4,892 | ⚠️ Incumbent Trailing |
| 🟨 STATE REP — DISTRICT 27 (DEM) | |||||
| Tammy Carpenter | 49.46% | 50.78% | +1.32% | 4,157 | ⚡ LEAPFROG SURGE (Took Lead) |
| Ashley Hartmeier-Prigg | 50.26% | 48.96% | -1.30% | 4,008 | ⚠️ Dropped to #2 |
| 🟧 STATE REP — DISTRICT 29 (DEM) | |||||
| Susan McLain | 75.97% | 75.86% | -0.11% | 3,674 | ✅ Victory Call Solidified |
| Mark Watson | 23.63% | 23.72% | +0.09% | 1,149 | Defeated |
| 🟪 COUNTY COMMISSIONER — DISTRICT 2 | |||||
| Felicita Monteblanco | 51.72% | 51.65% | -0.07% | 11,724 | ⚖️ Teetering on Outright Win Line |
| Blayne Soleymani-Pearson | 24.18% | 24.79% | +0.61% | 5,626 | Holding Slim Runoff Advantage |
| Stevan C. Kirkpatrick | 23.81% | 23.26% | -0.55% | 5,280 | Slipped Behind by 346 |
🔍 Race-by-Race Breakdowns & Trending Shifts
🟥 Washington County Board Chair: Fai Surges Into First Place
In the countywide Board Chair contest, Nafisa Fai executed a decisive maneuver, capturing a +1.34% vote share swing to move cleanly past Pam Treece. Fai now commands a 2,271-vote cushion at the top of the ticket, leading Treece 37.13% to 34.76%. While both sitting commissioners are securely locked into the nonpartisan November runoff (with Jenny Kamprath eliminated at 27.61%), Fai has secured critical structural and operational velocity heading into the general election cycle.
🟦 County Commissioner — District 4: Sinclair Solidifies Runoff Slot
While former Hillsboro Mayor Steve Callaway remains a clear first-place anchor at 33.84% (7,958 votes), Kipperlyn Sinclair leveraged the afternoon update to gain nearly a full percentage point (+0.92%). Sinclair has extended her lead over third-place Ayla Hofler to 375 votes (4,744 to 4,369 votes), firmly positioning herself to take the secondary slot on the general election ballot in November.
🟩 Senate District 15: Labor-Backed Muñoz Leapfrogs Incumbent Sollman
The late progressive wave completely upended our primary legislative tracking rows, creating a historic photo finish. In Senate District 15, labor-backed challenger Myrna Muñoz weaponized a 1.92% vote-share surge to overtake multi-term incumbent Senator Janeen Sollman, turning a midnight deficit into a narrow 155-vote lead (5,047 to 4,892 votes). The remaining votes postmarked on Election Day will fully control whether Sollman can mount a counter-rebound.
🟨 House District 27: Carpenter Erases Deficit to Capture Advantage
Mirroring the Senate 15 dynamic, progressive challenger Tammy Carpenter engineered an identical jump in House District 27. Capturing a +1.32% positive swing, she pushed past Ashley Hartmeier-Prigg, turning the tables to carve out a 149-vote advantage (4,157 to 4,008 votes). Strategists from both campaigns acknowledge that this race is locked in a dead heat that will come down to late-week postmark tallies.
🟧 House District 29: The Incumbent Victory Call Solidifies
Rep. Susan McLain’s commanding position remained entirely impervious to late-voter shifts, maintaining her dominant 75.86% margin (3,674 votes). Challenger Mark Watson holds just 23.72% of the vote (1,149 votes). This race remains officially and safely checked as an undisputed victory for the longtime incumbent.
🟪 County Commissioner — District 2: Monteblanco Skirts Outright Win Cliff
In the District 2 County Commissioner race, Felicita Monteblanco remains perched precariously above the majority threshold at 51.65%. Her buffer to win the seat outright and avoid a grueling autumn campaign shrunk by a tiny 0.07% margin during today’s data processing. Any persistent progressive slant in late mail-in verification could pull her under the 50% + 1 threshold. If a runoff triggers, Blayne Soleymani-Pearson has pulled open a 346-vote margin (5,626 to 5,280 votes) to edge past Stevan Kirkpatrick for the primary challenger seed.
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Who will win? There has perhaps never been a late surge like this in the History of Washington County! Clearly, the youth of this country and county, disenfranchised by an America they no longer feel welcome in, are demanding that their issues be heard and that they be given a sizable seat at the table. No doubt AI, job loss, back-breaking power/water/gas rates, and of course Data Centers and tech oligarchs are behind this movement.
To see the Silicon Forest, which has been dominated by conservative democrats who are extensions of Intel and big tech silos, leaning left is quite something indeed. This is happening, in my view, because the promise of shared prosperity with people and tech is now a false narrative. When money spilled over into a majority of households in Hillsboro and beyond, things were fine. But Data Centers have not brought jobs or prosperity, and Team Blue has fallen. So has Nike and many others. With thousands of jobs gone and costs out of sight, our citizens are done waiting. The property tax giveaways, strategic investment tax breaks, and the more-is-better mindset were allowed to happen when a majority were doing “better”. The candidates who brought us through that era, but who now want to say it is all coming back and to keep electing them, are finding out people are more than a little unhappy.
The only race we are watching that has finished is the Susan McLain vs. Mark Watson race. McLain was to many the most left-leaning politician in Washington County. She is a centrist by comparison now.
The biggest race is Sollman vs. Munoz. This race will be the most significant of its kind in Oregon history, really. If the final late-week ballots solidify this lead, Myrna Muñoz won’t just have won a seat; she will have rewritten the playbook on how grassroots campaigns can successfully challenge entrenched corporate and political power in Oregon.
Nothing is over, and that is the point. The Oregonian and the TV News Channels had written this group of candidates off last night. Now they are all alive, and the gloves are off. It is all up to those final few votes now.
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Take the Poll: Did you drop your vote off early, late, or mail it in? And if so, which way did you vote? Take our Poll below!
The Oregonian had to walk back its entire Washington County election coverage from the first night to yesterday afternoon. It went from an “appear to have lost” framing to calling the races for those candidates.
It’s a reminder to editors and newsrooms across the state: You don’t have an “election night,” you have an election deadline. Instead of buying a bunch of pizzas and pretending all of the returns will come in late that night, prepare for multiple days of coverage timed to the ballot drops. Campaigns, meanwhile, might be better served moving their “Election Night” parties to later in the week either as a celebration of the win or as a thank-you to the campaign for its efforts regardless of the result.