“Whispers emanating from the unassuming landscape of Hillsboro, Oregon—home to Intel’s sprawling Ronler Acres campus—suggest a story is unfolding of a comeback so audacious it could reshape the technological world order. ” 4/21/2025 – The Hillsboro Herald
Those are the words I wrote a year ago when Intel was falling so fast that everyone had written the company off. I was contacted by a man- a real person. Someone who spent a lifetime working in the Chip sector and who watches Team Blue for fun, and who bleeds Blue as well. Someone who showed me The Field when Intel stock was at $18.13 per share on April 20th, 2025. After a week or so of reading and communication, I began to understand the hundreds of pages of financial data, technical charts, and the complex world of Semiconductor production, as well as the many machinations that go on in tech-media to manipulate outcomes. His knowledge was so intense, so complete, and so founded in facts that I learned to see “The Field”. Thus, I gave my new friend the name Bagger.
He predicted an epic Intel comeback on April 21st, 2025. He was right. I wrote it. People reacted- Intel is at $80 a share a year later. Total fortunes have been made in the past few weeks, and the company may have a lot of room to keep moving up.
Here is a link to that story.
A year ago, my friend “Bagger” highlighted the pivotal work underway at Ronler Acres aimed at reclaiming Intel’s foundry leadership. At the time, the narrative was dominated by Nvidia and TSMC, leaving Intel in the rearview mirror. Today, that narrative has shifted. On the recent earnings call, Intel didn’t just answer the questions posed last year; they demonstrated that the “audacious comeback” is actively reshaping the landscape.
The “Hillsboro faithful” should take note: An Intel comeback is no longer a “potential” story.
Intel is back.
The Lip-Bu Tan Factor
Bagger contends that Lip-Bu Tan is one of the most effective “CEO-salesmen” in the industry. While his public delivery is measured and soft-spoken, his ability to position a portfolio for long-term shareholder value is masterful. Bagger also believes the data shows Intel is much better positioned than Lip’s humble answers suggest—specifically regarding the surging demand for Xeon and the shift toward Agentic AI.
The Xeon Surge: Why Analysts are Digging
During the call, analysts from Deutsche Bank, B of A, and Wells Fargo repeatedly drilled down on the Xeon business. In the semiconductor world, analysts revisit a question when they feel the initial answer missed the “meat” of the matter. While management gave responsible replies, the evidence points to a unique competitive moat: Intel has paired the industry’s only bespoke CPU Agentic solution (AMX/TDX/MRDIMM) with a relentless surge in leading-edge wafer capacity.
Unlike basic chatbot inference, Agentic AI, where AI agents perform autonomous, multi-step tasks, requires higher CPU density and security. Intel’s Granite Rapids (GNR) features three pillars that provide a unique value proposition in this space:
AMX (Advanced Matrix Extensions): Critical for on-chip AI acceleration without a discrete GPU.
TDX (Trust Domain Extensions): Essential for hardware-isolated “trust domains” required by enterprise agents.
MRDIMM (Multi-Ranked Buffered DIMMs): Providing the massive memory bandwidth these models crave.
Bagger’s research indicates that while ARM and AMD offer excellent general-purpose solutions, Intel has the “best of breed” stack for high-ROI enterprise AI. With Diamond Rapids and Coral Rapids on the horizon, this leadership is poised to extend.
The “Secret Sauce”: Beyond the Balance Sheet
The earnings call followed a familiar pattern: analysts probing for upside while Lip and David provided thoughtful, soft-spoken answers. Bagger observes that this “quarterly dance” is a Lip-Bu Tan specialty—driving incredible value by under-promising and over-delivering.
Only nine months ago, the narrative was “broken”: a damaged balance sheet, excessive CapEx, too many of the wrong employees, and a roadmap in need of repair. Today, the message has inverted. Intel is hiring, investing further in CapEx, and the product roadmap is “Sold Out.” This explains the stock’s volatile journey from multi-year lows to all-time highs.
What changed? Beyond Lip’s “sales skills” required to secure outside investment and new customers, Intel is starting to fix its perception problem. For example, Intel recently bought back the 2024 Apollo Ireland investment at a premium, signaling that it now has the cash flow to afford it. Seven months ago, Intel was seeking liquidity; today, they are retiring debt and increasing capex.
The $110B Question
The key that analysts are working to turn is how the $110B+ in CapEx invested over the last five years will play out. Were the last nine months a fluke? As of last Friday, the market remains split:
- 13 “Buy” recommendations against
- 34 “Holds” and
- 4 “Sell” recommendations.
The “humble” approach hasn’t won everyone over yet.
Intel’s (INTC) Big AI Breakthrough Began in Hillsboro, Oregon — The Hillsboro Gambit II
Another story from our series with Bagger in 2025-
However, the “Hillsboro Proof” is hiding in plain sight. Intel has delivered on its investment in capacity, process, people, and products. Intel finally has a seat at the “adult table” for the AI feast, leaving behind the “card table in the den” where it sat with their younger siblings and cousins for the last three years.
The Headlines
Bagger contends it is time to move past being soft-spoken. The list of wins is simple and definitive:
Granite Rapids: Sold Out.
Xeon 4/5: Sold Out.
Panther Lake: Ramping on 18A (Chandler and Hillsboro) at record levels. Yields are ahead of schedule. Sold Out.
Arrow Lake Plus: Winning benchmarks; Sold Out.
Global Capacity: Fabs in Oregon, Chandler (Fab 52/62), Ireland (Fab 34), and Israel (Fab 28) are ramping to meet “sold out” status on their respective nodes. TSMC is building products that meaningfully and profitably add to that capacity.
Future Roadmap: Diamond Rapids and Nova Lake show pre-launch momentum.
The math is relatively straightforward to understand, and where Intel goes from here, according to Bagger. Straightforward but lengthy. He thought it best to leave it out of this discussion today.
Conclusion: Baggers Reward
The nickname “Bagger” comes from golf. It is used as a term of endearment for a caddy, like my friend Bagger, who has helped me understand Intel. It can also mean a “sandbagger”, one who consistently understates their competitiveness to win the match.
Analysts get four minutes to ask their questions on these earnings calls, barely enough time to peer deeply into Intel. But the math, hidden in the financial reporting, points to a stunning conclusion. With leading-edge wafer supply that is currently unmatched and a “sold out” status on high-margin silicon, the headline is simple:
Intel is back. Ronler Acres led the way. Hillsboro has much to be proud of.
Where does Hillsboro, Oregon, end up in this new world with Intel back at the big boys’ table? Well, we lost over 5,000 jobs in the past 24 months. Bagger thinks Ronler Acres will continue to lead the company’s worldwide R&D. But with the advent of AI, robotics, and tighter budgets, can employment really return in large numbers? Bagger believes Ronler Acres will lean into its HVM (High Volume Manufacturing) capabilities to help meet the orders rolling in, but wages for those jobs will be lower. Still a win for Hillsboro, and we can use one.
