The 2024 Portland Metropolitan Area real estate report for April has been released by the Portland RMLS. The Multiple Listing Service is the largest in the Region and is responsible for providing service to tens of thousands of Realtors and their customers who work in this part of the Pacific NW. Well over 95% of all home sales are tracked and marketed through the company. The sales, pending sales, and active listings data help economists, appraisers, and marketers predict values and the economics involved with our housing market.
So, with all this information, what is the real estate market doing? One thing is certain: predictions of a crash or reduction in real estate prices have not manifested themselves, not even one iota. Have a look at the info graphic below.
- New listings are up 17% year over year, which means there are more for sale, which is good for consumer choice.
- Average sales prices are up 2.1% year over year.
- Median Sales prices are up 1.5%.
- The number of pending sales is up 6.9% from 2023.
- Closed sales are up 10.3% year over year.
- Homes are taking longer to sell.
What does all of that data mean? As a broker fo 43 years here in Washington County, I can tell you this. With interest rates still over 7%, this should not be happening. The market should be giving ground. But it isn’t. The monthly payment on a median-priced home in Hillsboro, Oregon ($750,000) with a 20% down payment ($150,000) at a 7.5% interest rate is now $4,200 monthly. Add in Taxes and insurance, and the payment rounds out at 5,000 dollars a month- far more than most people in town can afford. That same home just two years ago, when rates were in the 4s, would only be $3,000 monthly. That means the payment for a home today is 60% higher than it was.
If the Market is Hot now, what will happen when rates come down? I do not know what to say to everyone other than watch out. If our real estate markets are up now, they will skyrocket when rates come down. Today may seem like a horrible time to buy, yet it may be the only time many of you will be able to. Here is why.
- Oregon, especially the Hillsboro, Oregon area, fueled by high-tech jobs, is on fire as far as incoming people.
- Climate is driving Californians and others to our State, and that is a fact.
- Water – we have it still, and everyone wants it, both industry and residential users.
- Lack of housing production- this country is 25 years behind in building homes.
- Inflation is still high, and price gouging is a big factor.
- PERMITS – Cities like Hillsboro charge up to $60,000 per home, and those are going up.
- RENTS—They are up, up, up! This pressure on housing will not end, and the need to have a safe, stable home remains the most important goal for most people.
- If rates move down, look for wild overbidding and a frantic market as buyers now pushed to the sidelines are back in the market.
I wish you all the best in finding happiness and having a home. I believe so strongly that we are in historic times that I will make sure we, as a family, help all our children have a home for the long term. Maybe we won’t be able to, but that remains the goal.
This is the housing report, and it is hot!
At some point, even scarcity, and greed fall victim to the unavoidable facts of unnafordability. The hallmark of a deficient economy is the extreme benefit to the few, to the detriment of all the rest. A classic, oft repeated prescription for horrific social unrest, and bloodshed. Witness Marie Antoinette, cake, and all the ensuing cruelty and bloodshed that followed. When we’re all hungry, the human propensity, like in a ship sinking, is panic, selfishness, and mutual destruction. The only thing standing in the way of armageddon, is integrity, kindness, and love . . Please see elsewhere in this wonderful little rag, your thoughts about your mom, mothers, and their children . . Thank you, Dirk.